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harry potter - How many wands did Ollivander need?


For reference, here are two questions that deal with wizarding population: What is the total wizarding population during the events of the Harry Potter series and How many people worked for the Ministry of Magic?


The British Wizarding population seems rather small. Apparently the entire student body of Hogwarts is able to fit into the Hogwarts Express (According to Pottermore -- 1, 2 -- the Hogwarts Express is the only way to Hogwarts; it's not like some students ride the train and some students are dropped off by their parents for the school term.).


How many wands would Ollivander have to keep on hand at any given time? We know Harry tried out a lot of wands before his wand finally chose him. Maybe some kids need five tries; maybe some get the right wand on the first try. And there are broken and lost wands that need replacing to take into consideration.


I don't consider the movies canon, but as they're JKR approved, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone shows Ollivander has a pretty significant number of wands in stock for what is a smaller Wizarding population (see pics). Is there a canonical way to estimate how many wands Ollivander would need to keep in stock?


I'm looking for an answer grounded in canon, meaning the novels, interviews with J.K. Rowling, or information from Pottermore or the like. Barring that, a speculative answer in the spirit of canon is absolutely welcome, including alternative sources of information. ETA 12.21.14


Ollivanders 01


Ollivanders 02


Ollivanders 03



Answer




Ollivander is the primary wand maker for the United Kingdom. JK Rowling is on record as saying there are 1,000 students at Hogwarts at any given time. If you believe there are roughly 36 new students per house per year that means he needs to supply around 144 wands per year to new students. The cited article says there are likely significantly less students per year, and Rowling has admitted to being poor at math, but she is on the record...


Now some poorer families don't necessarily buy a new wand right away (such as Ron Weasley), but they probably buy a new one at some point. And wands can be damaged and destroyed (such as Harry's), so that probably evens out.


The other consideration is that the "wand chooses the wizard." Other than when specifically directed to make a wand for a person (such as the replacement wand for Peter Petigrew) he needs to manufacture lots of wands hoping that one of them will choose each prospective customer.


Now he probably spends most of the year constructing wands, builds up a huge inventory before the start of a new school year, and subsequently has it depleted.


So if you count the incoming students for Hogwarts and assume some kind of 0.5% wand loss / replacement for the UK wizard population at large (3000) you'd be looking at Ollivander needing 160 odd wands in stock for the start of term each year.


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