Is Tolkien's Middle-earth in our Universe?

I started reading The Hobbit to my daughter last night having read most of Tolkien's books in my youth, but haven't read them again for some years.

In the first few pages of The Hobbit, Tolkien talks about Hobbits being less common 'these days' such that 'big folks like us' probably don't know much about them. Taken in isolation, these first few pages strongly imply that the events take place in our world, presumably many many years ago.

However, this isn't the impression one gets from any of the other books, as far I can remember. Particularly The Silmarillion presents a creation story that takes some elements of the Ambrahamic faiths' creation stories, but is clearly a different story. I don't get the impression that Tolkien intends these other stories to be about our world.

What was Tolkien's likely meaning behind this passage?

Answer

Middle-earth is supposed to be the same world as our Earth, at a "different stage of imagination". Something like a fictional history of the real world Earth. Here is the relevant bit from a BBC interview with Tolkien (1971) (heard at about the 5:40 mark of this video):

G: I thought that conceivably Midgard might be Middle-earth or have some connection?

T: Oh yes, they're the same word. Most people have made this mistake of thinking Middle-earth is a particular kind of Earth or is another planet of the science fiction sort but it's just an old fashioned word for this world we live in, as imagined surrounded by the Ocean.

G: It seemed to me that Middle-earth was in a sense as you say this world we live in but at a different era.

T: No ... at a different stage of imagination, yes.

(emphasis is mine)

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