By the first Leto II, I'm referring to the one born in Dune, who died during the Sardaukar raids. Additionally, I am not necessarily implying that Paul was not the Kwisatz Haderach (because that is its own discussion), I am asking, could the first son have achieved the same "terrible purpose" that Paul saw and Leto II fulfilled.
The first son had the same heritage as the second, and so should genetically be as capable as the later son.
Paul shares some prescient connection with both of them: he knows the instant the first has died, and the vision-sharing experience on the night of the second's birth. This in contrast to him not even knowing Ghanima was born.
Would the genetics alone have led him along the Golden Path?
Answer
The short answer is 'no' with a healthy dollop of 'probably' on the side...
In order to successfully steer humanity along the Golden Path (and become a sandworm/human hybrid) you seem to require three things;
- The Atreides genetic structure
Duke Leto's male heirs seem to possess quite similar powers; the ability to view the memories of their male forebears and a form of prescience. Although the Bene Gesserit are pretty convinced that Paul Muad'Dib is the Kwisatz Haderach, he himself constantly claims that he's not, that he's something similar but distinct and different.
Either way, in order to walk along the Golden Path you have to have the Atreides genes in order to be able to sense the future and use the powers of the Bene Gesserit to resist the chemical changes needed (see below).
- Saturation with Melange spice
When Leto II (the Second) begins the initial change, he has become super-saturated with Spice. In addition to supplementing his visions of the future, the Spice also allows his body to become physiologically compatible with the baby sandtrout. A normal human would simply have died by this point.
- You need to be Pre-born but not possessed.
Leto II (the Second) and Paul have an intense conversation in the desert before Leto deposes Alia. It's pretty clear that Paul has seen the possibility of joining with the sandtrout but had rejected it because the option is simply too horrible to consider. The path essentially requires the subjugation of humanity, the death of billions more people as well as centuries of unpleasant physical changes;
Leto : "I've already done it. My skin is not my own."
Paul : "You think I've not seen a thing similar to what you choose?"
Leto : "You saw it"
Paul : "Is your vision any better than mine?"
Leto : "Not one whit better. Worse, perhaps,"
Which all brings us back to Leto II (the first). Although he possessed the Atreides genes and certainly could have become a male Bene Gesserit/Kwisatz Haderach, the simple fact is that without being pre-born he would have lacked the emotional detachment (as did Paul) required to guide the human race along the Golden Path.
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